2009 NBA Playoffs: First Round Predictions

It's that time again! April can only mean two things: the semester is almost over, and the NBA Playoffs are about to begin. And NBA Playoffs means it's predictions time. (As always, I do not guarantee accuracy nor cogency in my picks, but I do guarantee that I will tout my correct predictions and ignore my wrong ones).

Before we begin, a link to the current matchups page on ESPN.com is fitting, as I will be referring to it often. With that, let's remember that the first round series are 2-2-1-1-1, home-away, with the higher seed having home court advantage.

The Eastern Conference

#1 Cleveland (66-16)
#8 Detroit (39-43)
Cleveland won the season series 3-1
This one is too easy. Detroit is playing terribly at exactly the wrong time in the season, blowing their one chance to avoid Cleveland against Chicago a couple of days ago. Cleveland is easily the best team in the Eastern Conference, with a ridiculous 39-2 home record. This one will be a complete-wash, even with a veteran team like Detroit. Nothing more needs to be said.
Prediction: Cleveland in 4

#2 Boston (62-20)
#7 Chicago (41-41)
Boston won the season series 2-1
The Celtics' title chances were crippled by news breaking earlier today that Kevin Garnett would most likely miss the entirety of the playoffs. A lot of people have Chicago being a hot sleeper pick to upset the C's, but frankly, I don't see it. Yes, Chicago has played like a completely different team since the trade which brought in John Salmons and Brad Miller, but their home victory against the C's was a 127-121 squeaker at home, where John Salmons exploded for 38 points. That's not happening again, you can put money on it. Even without KG, Boston has some ultra-competitors in Ray Allen and Paul Pierce, and Pierce's performance in the past few games really has me believing that he could beat Chicago all by himself. Look for Pierce to shut down Salmons in crunchtime via his severely underrated defense, and come up huge in the clutch. And if the Celtics start wavering, look for him to bring back the wheel chair to inspire his team.
Prediction: Celtics in 5

#3 Orlando (59-23)
#6 Philadelphia (41-41)
Orlando won the season series 3-0
Orlando has completely owned Philadelphia this season, but Orlando is also hobbling into the playoffs. Both Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis sat out the Magic's final game with injuries, and who knows if they'll be 100% when they return. That being said, the Magic has arguably the best interior defense in the league, almost entirely due to Dwight Howard, which is the 76ers only strength. They're a horrendous 3-point shooting team, shooting .318 as a team this year, compared to the Magic's .381. This is probably the worst possible matchup the 76ers could have drawn, and I really can't see them winning a single game in this series unless Hedo and Lewis are seriously hurt.
Prediction: Orlando in 4

#4 Atlanta (47-35)
#5 Miami (43-39)
Atlanta won the season series 3-1
This series is so difficult to call. This is the prototypical "team versus man" game, which will feature the Hawks' team defense going against the offensive force that is Dwyane Wade. Ultimately, I think this series will come down to home court and the referees, who could really tilt this one either way. If the ref's call a fair series, I think the Hawks should be favored to win. But if the refs decide it's their duty to protect Dwyane Wade, the Heat will win easily. Both teams are very good on their home court, so I really think this will go down to game 7 in Atlanta, which is really a toss up. Much as I would love to call it a draw, I have to pick a team to win, so I'm going with home court.
Prediction: Atlanta in 7

The Western Conference

#1 Los Angeles (65-17)
#8 Utah (48-34)
Los Angeles won the season series 2-1
This Utah team seems eerily similar to last year's Denver team, in that they're just not that good. We can all see they have a ton of potential, as evidenced by their decent playoff runs the past couple years, but this year they just haven't put it together, mostly due to injury. Deron Williams is still ultra-dangerous, but I just don't see him winning a game by himself, especially when Boozer and Kirilenko are giving the Jazz almost nothing. Given that the one loss the Lakers had against the Jazz came right before the All-Star Break after a 6 game road trip, when Millsap was a double-double machine, in which the Lakers came out completely flat, I can't see the Jazz's home court putting them over the top in any game, unless they successfully threaten the refs' lives before each game in SLC.
Prediction: Los Angeles in 4

#2 Denver (54-28)
#7 New Orleans (49-33)
Season series tied 2-2
Denver seems like a complete enigma. Sometimes they do look like the 2nd best team in the West, other nights they come out with nothing, like last night against Portland. Yet, I feel like the Nuggets match up very well with the Hornets. No one is stopping CP3, that's a given. However, the lack of a low-post threat for the Hornets prevents them from exploiting Denver's biggest weakness: the lack of a legitimate post defender. That being said, the Nuggets help a lot, especially Birdman Andersen, who loves to leave his man for blocks. This will give Chris Paul a ton of assists, and so long as he makes good decisions, I feel like the Hornets will cruise. Nevertheless, they'll need a masterful performance from Chris Paul to pull it off, and at least 20 minutes of Tyson Chandler per night. The X-Factor will be Chauncey Billups: if he can push Chris Paul around and bomb threes over the much-shorter Paul, even a masterful performance from CP3 may not be enough. The steadying hand of Billups seems like it may be enough to put Denver over the top, but this series really comes down to Billups vs. Paul and who gets the best of the other.
Prediction: Denver in 7

#3 San Antonio (54-28)
#6 Dallas (50-32)
Season series tied 2-2
San Antonio is coming into the playoffs with Tony Parker, half of Tim Duncan, and Manu Ginobili's still-warm corpse, which doesn't bode well for them, going against a Dallas team that's been playing fairly well of late. That being said, somehow, someway, San Antonio gets it done in the playoffs. This series reminds a ton of last year, when almost everyone had the younger, faster, quicker Phoenix Suns winning over the older, slower Spurs, and they showed us who still wears the pants. Everything, and I mean everything, including health, age, momentum, and style of play all point to the Mavericks winning, but I just can't do it. Something in my gut tells me that the Spurs have some playoff magic left in their old bones, before they tank next season away in order to land a new Tim Duncan (trust me, it's going to happen).
Prediction: Spurs in 5

#4 Portland (54-28)
#5 Houston (53-29)
Houston won the seasons series 2-1
Houston really has the Blazers number. Despite all odds, the Blazers match up very poorly with the Rockets, getting clobbered in Houston on their last winning, and just barely taking their first matchup in Portland on a Brandon Roy game-winning three. Portland is the hot pick to make noise in the West and give the Lakers their biggest challenge, but one thing not to be discounted is their lack of playoff experience. I'm looking for the Rockets to come out strong and steal one of the first two games in Portland, then ride that momentum to their first playoff series win since Hakeem Olajuwon was around. This series is shaping up to be probably the most entertaining of the first round, not just because of the roughly equal talent level of both teams, but also for the slight chance that Ron Artest will jump into the stands and punch out a few Portlanders, which is never a bad thing.
Prediction: Houston in 6